They say that the bottom occurs on the day(s) when all hope is lost. The day of capitulation.
I think this will be in the days or the week that GM goes to the wall. The negative ramifications will be huge on the employment and small business front - and the news will be bleak for a week and these will be the days of no hope.
This is when to go long on the DJIA. (That's my plan)
After a month or so everyone will realise there are positives - Ford will now survive easily and start to recover and maybe even, amazingly, Chrysler will live to fight another day. The market will realise that other motor vehicle companies will take up the slack and even start to grow. They will realise it is not the end of the world.
After that, recovery will be slow this year and then accelerate.
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