AFR - De Grey targets top five gold mine, page-114

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Netraam

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16/11/20

14:12

Post #: 48906126
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Originally posted by LPN: ↑

Hey all. Been a while since I've put in my 2c worth. Some good discussion going on at the moment.

Back when I was running numbers based on 350kozpa I seem to remember coming up with an estimate of $1.2-1.5B in capex (maybe a bit less, I havent checked), including studies etc... And about 4-6 years to production. The last few months things have developed, mostly positively which is good. A few shenanigans but nothing I havent seen before from the main players in this project. I've been in and out of DEG a couple of times since then so dont really have any rusted on sentiment (original stake was from a few years back so went all the way down and most of the way up). Also not currently holding although I would be if I wasnt over committed in a couple of others.

As a quick update to my thoughts on capex and Ore Reserves though - using the 500kozpa and 10 year performance rights thresholds as a guide - somewhere in the order of 10-12Mtpa and 100-120Mt OR at 1.4-1.6g/t head grade and (say) 90% met recovery, for $800-1000/oz AISC. I'm now expecting a MR requirement of 180-200Mt and 10-12Moz to get to 5-6Moz as a reserve. The maiden MR mid-2021 is unlikely to be that high, certainly not at an Indicated level, which is required for it to be included in any PFS.

I'm thinking the first MR should be used for a scoping study - you can use Inferred in those, while drilling is ongoing to get more ounces into Indicated. I'd expect a PFS some time toward the middle or end of 2022 which would be the likely timing of any JV or takeover. FS 2023-2024. Possible gold production 2025-2026 if everything goes smoothly and the refractory circuit doesnt need to be online in the first year or so, more likely a bit later though. Likely capex $1.5-1.7B before first pour.

You need to keep in mind that the plant is only going to be a component of the overall capex. I'd be surprised if studies alone came in under $50M and there are $100's of millions required in drilling still if you include the "greater Hemi" and other satellite prospects. 7 rigs is probably $30-40M a year after assays and support/analysis. Then there's permitting, site works, sterilisation drilling (probably 50-60sqkm, $5-20M depending on spacing and what it turns up), probably land purchases, pre-stripping a few dozen million tonnes, etc... There's also a good chance the gas pipeline may need to be diverted. All the other little things that add up.

Just spitballing of course. Thoughts only. Could be miles out. Not advice.

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Good work. At least numbers for discussion iso all this "I know everything" talk.
what then, assuming your scenario, would we be looking at as a acceptable t o price?

DEG Price at posting: $1.19 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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AFR - De Grey targets top five gold mine, page-114

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AFR - De Grey targets top five gold mine, page-114

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