Not wishing to be a bore but , I cannot stand people ( myself included ) who say I knew that was going to happen etc , after the event !
Well I have the courage of my convictions and will be buying more Link today ( I already have a good size holding 20% of my portfolio )
Mr Dollar above mention the Morningstar buy note, well I have copied it below as it makes good reading .
Latest recommendation report Valuation: $7.70 Last updated:26/10/20 PEP's Revised Offer for Link Is Still Too Low Investment rating We expect Link's narrow economic moat to protect its reasonably large market shares in the Australian and United Kingdom financial services administration markets, underpinned by customer switching costs, a marginal cost advantage, and contractual terms of three to five years. The acquisition of U.K.-based Capita Asset Services in 2017 reduced the proportion of revenue from Link's Australian businesses to around 60% of group revenue. We expect the key earnings driver for both the U.K. and Australian businesses to be cost reductions over the next three years, underpinning an EPS CAGR over the next decade of around 12%.Event Impact Recommendation impact (last updated: 26/10/2020)--Event analysis PEP's Revised Offer for Link Is Still Too Low We're not surprised that the Pacific Equity Partners, or PEP, and the Carlyle Group consortium have increased their indicative non-binding offer for narrow-moat rated Link to AUD 5.40 per share. The initial AUD 5.20 offer was well below our unchanged AUD 7.70 fair value estimate and was rejected by Link's board of directors last Friday as it "materially undervalued" the company. We doubt the 4% increase in the consortium's offer price will close the "material" gap, nor does it change our view that the bid significantly undervalues the company.The revised offer includes both an all-cash AUD 5.40 option and an alternative option to receive AUD 3.80 in cash plus an "indirect interest" in PEXA. We assume this means existing shareholders will have the option to maintain their existing exposure to PEXA on a pro-rata basis. However, we recently valued Link's investment in PEXA at AUD 1.88 per share and the remainder of Link at AUD 5.82 per share, meaning the consortium's bid is 35% below what we think Link ex-PEXA is worth. In addition, our valuation is of a minority shareholding in the company and it could be argued that the consortium should pay a premium to this, for the benefit of achieving full control of the company.We think the most likely next steps will be that Link's board rejects the latest offer from the consortium, denies due diligence access, and pushes ahead with the planned listing of PEXA on the ASX. Considering how hot technology stocks are currently, PEXA could generate a lot of interest, particularly considering the company appears to have already begun its "roadshow." Richard Moore was also appointed chief financial officer in January 2020 from MYOB, which he helped list on the ASX in 2015. We expect the investment bankers in Link's camp will fight tooth and nail to ensure Link remains independent and that the PEXA IPO is successful.
I apologise for anyone who is offended by my posts but, please if you know of another stock where the is a potential bid which is extremely low ball and the share price is about 10% below that price please let me know. Remember we are not speculating here , these are facts released to the market and not hyped up rumour . At the end of the day we are all here to make money and if you have a better than even chance then that gives one better odds of success.
Good luck to all that have the courage of their convictions
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