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Ann: Change of Director's Interest Notice PB, page-32

  1. 6,237 Posts.
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    Firstly I’d like to say I’m no expert and I’d love to be proven wrong but the reason I say it would be reckless for management to be sending a “signal” to the market by buying up large, at this time, is for two main reasons.
    Firstly it is normal for any equity portion of finance deals to be based on the market cap at the time. Sure the higher the market cap. the higher the point the equity for the project is raised and less dilution for existing shareholders. I agree that may work for smaller tried and true projects but for a company looking to build a new unproven project with a billion dollar capex, give or take, I disagree.
    True the project is being derisked as much as possible and SMS are giving a guarantee but how much will that guarantee cost? And how much more secure does it really make the project. After all guarantees are just bits of paper which if actioned usually end up being something expensive lawyers end up arguing over.
    Because of the risks I believe those providing the equity side of finance will only do so when the Market Cap is at a point where their risk is at a minimum so, IMO, management putting a fire under the SP by buying on market, at this time, may be reckless.

    Secondly the “signal” this may send to the market is that financé is a given. I don’t believe management could possibly know at this stage the terms, conditions and mix of any finance that is being offered. And whether it makes the project viable. Getting companies agreeing to financé the project is one thing whether or not it all stacks up is another. That’s what the FID about.
    At this stage I don’t even think the financial institutions themselves would know what they’re prepared to offer, and on what terms, as they have yet to see the end of the FEED!
 
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