tuesday's turn, page-16

Volt, it will be interesting to see what effect Armstrong's turn date has if any. I read that Armstrong piece the other day and he emphasizes that the market is not the economy and that his model relates to the economy. he states the economy may now be in disrepair for the next 23 to 26 years but markets may even make new highs in that time.

he states that at his feb 2007 date the housing bubble (real economy) popped but it was precisely 8.6 months later that the market peaked.

we know his model states that confidence should have been rising since last March but the market has fallen sharply in that time....I guess this is mostly to do with the great deleveraging of debt. One report I read the other day claims that the deleveraging should be finished by this (northern hemisphere) summer. So if that is the case what happens then ?? maybe funds that have been directed to debt can be directed to some level of comsumption or asset purchase. Maybe at least we will stop seeing assets sold at firesale prices.

Not that I would anticipate a sharp reversal of fortunes but perhaps we may see a bottoming...or even some mild recovery......

.....or maybe a whole new set of woes will emerge around his turn date.