BC8 0.00% 52.0¢ black cat syndicate limited

Ann: Initial Scoping Studies Support Pathway to Production, page-7

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  1. 3,839 Posts.
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    These guys keep deferring their FS (was due September-October, remember) and now we have a half baked scoping study based on inferred resources with a declared 30% level of accuracy using a gold price of A$2,650 per ounce (~$200/oz above current spot).
    Not saying the company cannot continue to build up resources and define reserves with a proper PFS but it is hard to get excited with a such a ball-park study.
    I realise that they are planning a staged development with Myhree production first off the rank. When I take their production target of 33Koz (based on 70% from inferred resources) with AISC of $1545/oz and capital expenditure of $60.3M for mine and plant development including contingency and working capital), I get an EV to Production of $3920/oz and an EV to Gross Operating Earnings of 4.1. All based on today's closing SP of 72c with a gold selling price of A$2500 assigned by me (a generous figure for valuation, I feel). These are high figures for this stage of activity.
    I cannot see the SP being promoted too much at present. In time, as more resources are identified and reserves declared then maybe, but the uncertainty on the current figures will be a restraint.
    I must admit, they are being careful with capital costs and canny with their approach to constructing a plant but there is a long way to go make this company more attractive than some others .
    As usual, the POG is a wild card. We seem to be at a point of inflection for a move upwards after the current drop, or even more downwards dependng on various sentiments.
    Caveat emptor.

 
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