+ rising product prices,
Seeing that we have to wait a few more weeks for the BFS, I thought it would be entertaining to have a go at creating my own spread-sheet using the best numbers I could glean from the PFS and then plug in my best guess for the UK plant. I then plugged in various Debt/CAPEX guess' from $350-850M and used this weeks NdPr price to see what effect the new price is having on our bottom lines
Also seeing as the PFS was constrained by the ASX's limited 'Resource' at the time and we now expect 2.3X that, I thought it may just be possible to increase the mining rate to 3Mt from year 4 on.
However I must be making a mistake somewhere, as the 10Y NPV (US$12B-8B) with a Y5 EPS of US$2.50 -2.40 are
Obscene !
I would love to hear of anybody else's attempt, I have been doing these things for over thirty years; so I must be getting careless in my old age !
I cut the transport cost from $150 to 100/t
c, added $100/t
c for UK Opex, 90% recovery at each stage, then used a 8% cash rate with 5% interest.
Oh and I did not allow for any further increase in the NdPr price, as it would make these numbers even more unbelievable !!!
Pure Speculation, but hey half the fun is dreaming of next years meeting of the "Pensana Club" in Pattaya, that Ski wants to organise
