Like I said many times, it's a research project at this stage and will come good in 2-3 years, so why do long term holders like myself need to post every day? or every week lol.
My target timeline is end of 2022 and it is a risky investment for most folks here. Risky because you cannot predict share price between now and 2 years from now. A Phillips deal could happen after the delirium trial but that would take at least 1 year. It is quite important to get government funding for new aged care markets hence the NHS X for the UK. This is the most cost-effective way to get beds as the issue is that the current salesforce is not big and so Painchek need to be strategic in what they should invest their time to. Getting grants is one way, getting multiple partners is the best way (e.g. Alayacare in Canada is a great start). Covid has materially halted growth this year as everyone is hands on deck, the Painchek app becomes necessary post-crisis and thus when procurement investment comes back, companies like Painchek will be up for discussion. No guarantees if it would lead to sales growth but getting good word of mouth with partners like Care England should help.
It's hilarious that people think the company is going bankrupt. There is like $14M cash on hand, most of it would be for
1. Trial design (FDA - once they come back with comments on the pre-submission feedback, TGA & CE submission for Children's app)
2. Pilot homecare trial working capital (I think a lot of you have forgotten that this is still ongoing, we should get feedback on this for next quarterly, this would align well with the Royal Aged care commission report where the government could increase more funding etc...)
3. Hire more staff (Sales and account managers in UK and Partnership managers in Canada (for more partners))
I am actually quietly confident that Painchek being under the radar = bashing from HC posters is a good thing. This is not a fast-growing company, it's slow growth but will get sticky customers as the product will become essential to the aged care industry and hopefully to hospital care. If you watch the Alpha Go (Deepmind documentary) what Painchek doing is making timewasting moves (partnership announcements with Ramsay, Phillips etc...) but as the game progress (i.e. time moves forward), those partnerships turn into small contracts, and then large contracts. It was not obvious that it could happen when they signed the partnership agreement in the first place. I believe it will happen, Ramsay does not get into research agreements if they don't think that there are no commercial opportunities, same with Phillips. These slow steps can get faster if they execute.
The market getting pessimistic is actually good. Lower valuation on long term potential. Much safer than higher valuation on long term potential. The added safety is cash on bank ~ 4 quarters of burn assuming $3M burn per quarter. I would buy at these levels, but because my weighted average is ~10cents the better alternative for me is to wait to 5c, if it does not get there I don't mind. My weighting is low like
@TerribleTadpole such that it does not affect my portfolio. The reason why I post a lot on this company is that the tech is really important for vulnerable populations (elderly and children). You can't consistently say no hope during the development process. That's like saying no hope for any new tech that comes, if they all listened to critics then you get no innovation and the problem remains unsolved.
