In terms of what Keppel would build - you might be right, it might be the turbines - but i'm not sure. I'm only going by what i've read in the past. CNM always seem to refer to "Pelton turbines" as an "off the shelf" technology - so i always assumed they would just order a stack of them from the Swiss company referred to below:
"Australian company Carnegie Corporation plans to build a CETO wave farm on Garden Island, off the coast of Perth, Australia. Managing Director Mike Ottaviano says: "We'll generate electricity at around about the cost of a wind farm." The plans include installation of a Pelton Turbine, supplied by Swiss company Calder AG, and a Desalination Plant, supplied by Australian company Citor Pty Ltd."
So i assumed they would need Keppel to build the actual CETO units - not the "turbines". i've never heard where they got the CETO II units built last year - anyone?
In terms of where they will build the CETO units, China has definitely always been a low cost option they've considered, but there will no doubt be a lot of issues/incentives at a state govt level that could lead them to choose a plant in Oz.
In terms of where the SP could be in a couple of years time - people are sometimes a little put off by the fact that by 2011 CNM expect to be generating only 5MW. However, as Ottaviano's comments in my last post suggest, by 2011, they will have a multitude of sites ready to roll at once, in Australia and internationally. It's why they can justify their aim of producing 2000-3000MW by 2020.
My feeling is that none of that massive potential is currently priced into the SP, and all of it will begin to be priced in at an exponential rate, probably from the moment we get a fed grant (or a CETO III in the water) through to about 2015, with a good deal of it happening before 2012. That's my hope anyway! But sorry tomu, i really dont have a clue about where the price will be - i wouldnt be in it with a big chunk-o-cash if i didnt think we could strike gold, but we'll have to see at what price they'll raise new money (hopefully it's not until after a $50-$100mill fed grant so we get a great price).
Here endeth the ramp.
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