when will AMP HIT $3.00, page-4987

A 1.85 takeover offer is out of the question, even if it were all cash.

But here's the sticking point: should Ares walk away (and I very highly doubt that based on the vast time they'd been watching AMP - the media suggest over a year) the market's psychology is such, that 1.85 has or will become the base valuation (around $6.2b market cap).

Those who question why we're sitting below 1.85 emphatically miss the point that the Ares offer is likely cash and scrip, so take 1.71, add the remaining in Ares shares, and we end up at circa 1.85 equivalent.

And never, never, never overlook the x-factor that Goldman Sachs (as adviser to AMP) brings to the table.

I am absolutely certain, with no hesitation in my mind, that if the Ares offer is dropped there will be some magic added to the announcement (such as company breakup plans or an extended monster buyback) that will send the share price surging and shorters scrambling to cover..

Good luck to traders who believe otherwise.