- Timing wise, it wouldn't have made much of a difference unless sentiment within the sector returns and the SP appreciated higher coupled with large enough volumes to support a higher 30 Day VWAP
- To think that a company could simply undertake a CR at a premium to a trailing 14-30 day VWAP and that instos would gladly participate in the CR, NEVER HAPPENS. I'm sorry you are on drugs
- It is fact that a raise during a short period of SP appreciation always results in a Large Discount to the Last Trading Price!
- Further to the above point, when this happens, many would no doubt be unhappy about this, particularly the traders!
- Forget about where the SP & MC were Pre the AGM results on the 19/11. A CR was never going to happen before then.
- Following the Meeting results the VWAP is as follows
- The 30day VWAP is always the key measure for a fair CR Value.
- Let's assume that would could raised anytime we wanted. Had we raised between the 9/Oct to 16/Oct, our 30 Day VWAP is still around a similar level!
- The last CR was down at a 8% discount to the 30 Day VWAP. Which is fairly Standard. So the CR SP would probably be around 28-28.5c. I think it's fair. Would have loved it to be around 40c, but it's wishful thinking at this stage.
- I don't think any retail will be involved in this CR
Please stop speculating on any SP manipulation unless you have hard facts and evidence of such. Some claim the SP was being capped, however, on the contrary, had we been appreciating, the same would be calling a P&D scenario.
We need to go back to what made the TSO threads a good place to post and that is sharing facts.
Let me share some facts with you lot.
Broker data from Monday & Tuesday this week indicates the following
- Retail have been the biggest net sellers, particularly, on our big rally on Tuesday (hence my comment on unorthodox retail trading)
- It's been mostly Pro Money that has been buying.
Now, back on topic, Assuming the CR is going to be enough to see us through all next year + some, my calcs are as follows
Ternera Resource Drilling (Assume 4 Rigs)
- 6 Holes per week, 36 week drill duration = 216 Drills
- Average 350m per hole = 75,600m
- Cost per drill (all inclusive) $225/m
- Ternera Drilling subtotal = $17 Million
District Target Drilling (Assume 2 Rigs)3 Holes per week, 16 week drill duration = 48 Drills- Average 350m per hole = 16,800m
- Cost per drill (all inclusive) $225/m
- District Drilling subtotal = $3.8 Million
Scoping Study & Feasibility - Assume $5 Mil
I think the total Cap Raise value could be around $20-25 Mil, which is similar to what many have estimated previously.
One thing to note, that during the periods when all 6 rigs are drilling concurrently and smashing possibly 9 holes per week, we are going to be EXTREMELY RICH with our News Flow. We'd be getting 9 x diamond drill hole assays every 1-2 weeks!
When the managed money funds return to the broader sector, expect some parabolic runs!
Plenty of look forward to!
