Thank you for your words of caution. Yes indeed the Asx, and all markets, are full of stories of precipitous rises and calamitous falls . The only reason stock prices fall after a stellar run is because the market figures out it was all just a dream based on hype. On the other hand, when FACTS and DATA are brought to our attention a stock price can keep on going up and seemingly defying gravity because those FACTS completely justify an even higher price , and the market realises there is more than just hype behind the story.
In the case of HerVaxx, 15 years of research and hard work coming to fruition, producing solid FACTS that it actually works .and in a manner far safer and far more effective to the best comparison on offer.
In the case of the HerVaxx data, (that should in all rationality be calling for a much higher price) , these results were way better than could have been anticipated. A Hazard ratio of 0.418 vs 0.65 for Herceptin is incredible . Unbelievable indeed. I heard that LC said in over twenty years of her own drug development experience, and working on over 200 clinical trials, that kind of result has only ever been seen twice before.
Perhaps therefore your tale of caution should be more about being aware of ignoring the quality of the facts and missing out on the future upside. US$400 million m.c now is still a cautious value put on the Imugene pipeline.
Do a very simple calculation based on HerVaxx alone in the pipeline with some conservative assumptions .
Replace Herceptin as the number 1 Her2 cancer drug. Or Combine with Herceptin and/or other drugs to produce a safer more effective outcome and immediately gain their existing market share. ( What oncologist in all fairness to a patient recommends something twice as harmful with half the survival outcome, knowing a better option is now available??)
Generate sales of US$ 4 billion per annum... conservative for the sake of the exercise.
15% royalty to Imugene = US$600,000,000
Divide by exchange rate 0.73
=~A$820,000,000
Divide that by total shares issued, incl all options outstanding,
= income per share 14c.
Stretch your imagination a little further and assume for a moment a far safer, far more effective treatment may actually see greater market share than the incumbent "go to" treatment. Assume HerVaxx is made available for both Breast and Gastric .
US$10billion in revenues per annum is not out of the question. Imugene's 15% royalty equates to 36c per share income, and multiply that by 14 years .
Patents out to 2036.
Which Big Pharma wants to own the rights to the other 85% of that income stream.?? Who would want to miss out??
Then remember HerVaxx is just our Jack of Spades, PD1-Vax is our King of Hearts , CF33 is all 4 Aces and a joker combined.
What cautious card player ever throws away a beautiful hand like that.? Sit and watch the others trade their measly 3's and 4's, 7's and 8's.... hold on to your royal hand and wait for the market and Big pharma to come begging.
And if you can't tell the difference between the Facts and the Hype , or see the value of the cards you've already got in front of you, you probably shouldn't be playing.
IMU Price at posting:
12.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)