STRONG SELL/ 50% downside potential, page-18

I have now read through this and all I can say is everyone should treat this with a grain of salt.

a lot of numbers and buyout fluff but very little scientific rigour.

they are about to start human trials. This would be a estimate timeline
phase 1 - one year to complete
phase 2 - two years to complete
phase 3 - two to three years to complete. Remember FDA says that two P3 trials should be undertaken, so expect this P3 trial would be with around 500-1000 patients and be double blinded.

you then need to leave around 6-12 months between each trial to analyse data and set up trial designs.

that takes me to at least 7-8 years before revenues.

your thesis on buyout is interesting but if I had a dollar for every buyout thesis in a bio I wouldn’t be on HC.

no big pharma is buying a company that has not done two FDA trials at least if the drug works as you say it does. To say that a big pharma will spend billions of dollars following a P1 trial on a little known Australian company is a tad ridiculous IMO.

and that’s the risk - who knows if the drug will work on humans as pre clinical trials suggest.

your math is focused on buyouts which I just don’t play into.

RAC is 5 years min at a buyout and 7-10 years from revenue. That is just factual and your math focuses on the price of buyout and revenue, but fails to say timelines and risk that product doesn’t work as very, very early data suggests.