$$$barrick to bid for newcrest$$$$, page-17

re: ncm -chart for those interested NCM could obviously have a small technical pullback after such a nice runup, but it's price would seem to depend more on gold & copper prices and the progress of some current expansion underway and the projected production increases for its price support and any further gains.


Would be careful shorting this one. A small period of consolidation and the MA will catch up to the stock price again.

You have to be careful with overbought/oversold technical indicators sometimes.

Just my opionion... make up your own mind.



Extract from a analyst report:
Market Review
The strategy for Newcrest is rather simple. It has three key components.
Firstly, undertake exploration for gold in the hope of discovering and
developing new projects. Secondly, developing deposits into viable
operations. Finally, maximising the efficiencies from operations. If
Newcrest is successful in these three facets of its business it will be able
to provide long term sustainable returns to shareholders.
Newcrest is currently embarking on extensive project development. In
2005 post the successful commissioning of new projects at Telfer,
Toguraci in Indonesia and Cracow Newcrest's group gold production is
anticipated to increase from 714,377 ounces in 2002/03 to over
1,620,000 ounces in 2005. Similarly, copper production is forecast to
almost double from 67,700 tonnes in 2002/03 to over 110,000 tonnes in
2005. At the same time Newcrest expect their cash costs to fall from
A$217 per ounce of gold produced to under A$190 per ounce over the
same period. This is indeed an impressive growth profile and if Newcrest
successfully accomplishes this growth on time and within capital
expenditure budgets the outlook is rosy for Australia's largest
Independent gold producer.
Newcrest reported their half yearly results to December 31 2003 on
February 27 2004. The most significant news was the progress being
made at Telfer. The company now expects production to commence in
June or July 2004 instead of October. As a consequence 2005 earnings
estimates have been revised upwards from our previous $243 million to
$275 million. Earnings estimates for 2004 were revised downwards from
$104.4 million to $98.5 million. Overall the news is positive for Newcrest
despite the earnings downgrade for 2004. The success of Telfer will be
the real profit driver for Newcrest going forward and progress to date on
the Telfer development has been very positive. The progress being
made at Telfer reduces one of our risks in the stock, although
commissioning of the new project is still risky. In addition, Newcrest
remains susceptible to movements in US dollar gold prices as has been
exhibited over the last couple of months. Consequently, whilst the risks
are reducing we remain cautious about Newcrest at the current price and
retain our Hold rating.
Newcrest Mining Limited (NCM) is a leading Australian gold producer
with mining and exploration projects in Australia, Indonesia and the USA.
Newcrest participates in three, and operates two, gold mines in
Australasia, and sees its exploration team as a long-term key to
shareholder value. The company focuses its efforts around existing
mines, and on the exploration of specific Greenfield sites within the
region. This approach has allowed NCM to reduce production costs per
ounce of gold and increase gold production.
NCM is undertaking significant new project growth through developing
gold mines at Telfer, Cracow and Togarucci.
NCM produces approximately 700,000oz of gold (Au) and 67,000 tonnes
of copper (Cu) per annum. Exploration is focused on Cadia East, Telfer,
Toguraci and the Cracow JV (70%) in Queensland.
Exploration is also being undertaken in the Ashburton region in WA as
well as Nevada in the United States.