end of the bear bounce friday, page-80

good work Sierra, 63 is 3 x the fib number 21. Just in the last couple of days the possible importance of 21 has been on my mind. Like all the bulls here i can see the significant change in chart indicators with the last rally. But does that mean we have seen the low ???

There is an old saying...there are lies, there are damned lies and then there are statistics. So this next part may not be very good TA. Nonetheless.......

The other day I listed all the armstrong right shoulders since the great depression. 5 out of 9 times there was a bear market that finished a few months after the shoulder, twice there was a bear market and once a flat period that went all the way to the end of cycle some 2 years 2 months later. STATISTICALLY there is little chance of the bear market being over now. However statistically there is a very good chance it could be over withing a few months...

Laundry the other week talked of 3 long historical bears that went for around 32 months (+ or - a month). If this bear went right to the end of the armstrong cycle it would be by far the longest ever bear market. However if it was to end within a few months it could be over at the 21 month mark. funnily enough that is how long the 73/74 bear lasted.

There has been very strong chart resistance formed at 8000 between october and february. I would suggest it may take several attempts to blast through it.

So i put forward the scenario that what we have seen happen recently is the formation of a left shoulder of an inverted h&s that may take the rest of the year to complete but with a bottom within a few months.