MSB Trading 2020 - a new dawn, page-12028

Dear Blasters

@dplane, @Showtime, @Wilba32, @ddwn, @Armyne and others - thank you for your kind words on my previous post. I'll certainly stick around and add value wherever I can. This post isn't my usual morning essay to be enjoyed with a coffee, but hopefully enjoyable at a minimum!

I know I said my next post is likely going to be from Queenstown next week; however, in light of current events (or the lack thereof) and the apparent thirst for announcements on these threads, I've conducted what might be my "Greatest Analysis" yet!

Over the past two years, Mesoblast has released 169 (ha, 69) announcements, the most popular day being Thursday (23% of the 169 announcements). The average time of the last two years' announcements was 11:02:50 AEST. Yes, I even converted times as release times are recorded both as AEST and AEDT (thanks, Prof!).

Here's a summary:



You'll recall I've been banging on about being in that $3.90-$4.30 share price band since over half a year ago (which I revised up to $5 following the Novartis partnership). We're in the sweet spot for news to drop, and it seems the market agrees with the low volumes being traded. The music (noise) is about to stop, I'm already sitting on a chair.

As such, I'm putting my money on either tomorrow or Thursday. I'm expecting the Minutes from the Type A meeting in re Ryoncil and the 60% readout of the COVID ARDS trial.

Doing my best to manage expectations and ensure we're informed, remember:

1. The current FDA team is likely to push back on accelerated approval for Ryoncil (SR-aGVHD) and we'll need to pursue other avenues (i.e. request a further Type A meeting and initiate the "well-established FDA resolution pathway");
2. The 60% readout may be "continue" as was the case with the 30% and 45% readouts; and
3. The heart readout, while may be positive positive, could require a confirmatory trial.

None of these outcomes are negative in my book. We're on a journey. There's no need to rush it - just ask your wives / girlfriends if you think otherwise.

*Past announcement days and times are not indicative of future announcement days and times


Kia kaha
AM.