If the number of hospitalizations in the treated group is comparable to the number in the control group, but the number of days alive is much higher in the treatment group, this implies that the risk of hospitalization per day is in fact lower in the treatment group. It seems very likely that MSB got a result far better than they anticipated here, and that the apparent equivalence of these results is due to an uncontrolled immortal time bias (dead people can’t go to the hospital). If so, this looks very positive to me; an accelerated approval considering hospitalization rate per day at risk, MACE events and mortality seems a real possibility to me (or at least requiring far fewer mental gymnastics that an Adacanumab approval will need). I am curious to hear what folks think.
MSB Price at posting:
$3.85 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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