iGO Tianqi, page-129

Firstly every deal is risky. By definition it is a change.

Secondly the glib assertion that 'the first time in history if this does not get sold down once shares are issued' is a claim is false but no doubt you will frame it more tightly. E.g. If IGO split out their gold assets and only issue a a small part part at 75% of what others gold stocks are trading the new gold stock will go up. Off the top of my head I can think of things like tech stocks e.g. Alibaba & Tesla, the new JD.com subsidiary listed recently and many IPO's that issued shares that immediately went into the index and went up.

It may go down particularly if people, presumably like you, vend them into the market immediately. I think (can see) management has carefully weighted up the split of issuance of shares and to date it is up 25% or so. I also know of and have participated in some like CSL where I sold relatively early much to my chagrin.

Yes, if lithium goes down and gold goes down and Nickel goes down and the Kwinana plant is a disaster it will go down.

All I know is, I have taken up my rights issue after considering the long term risk and rewards in light of board and management, in particular Peter Bradford's, decision making. Further, I believe a number of market participants are buying to generate the current price at present, fully informed of all the issues at hand.
AKA semi-strong to strong market efficiency model.