posting motives..., page-32

Interesting responses...

Mostly quite aggressive actually...lol...I wonder how my post, which did not point the bone at a single poster, and offer numerous "groups" which people could apply to themselves, manage to enrage so many?

A classic human response trigger...its like posting "you stink"...or..."you are beautiful"...what process transpires that leads some to be upset...or happy...when arguably the post is not actually directed at them.

Or was it?

lol

As for the more aggressive posts...which chose to personalise a non-emotive, impersonal post...

Yes, I have made poor calls...and good ones...like most on here...this is particularly the nature of the speculative end of the market.

Many love to point to GDN as a glowing past failure...fact is, my analysis was always on the Paradox structure and as we should all know by now, the oil and gas industry can make or break you based on results. In GDN's case, their first well came up dry...you get that in this game...but in my view, the analysis of the Paradox structure...and its potential to host hydrocarbons...was not only sound, but still stands even today, albeit reduced somewhat due to the first well results!

Lack of a discovery does not render one's analysis incorrect...this may be a mute point, but one I feel many cannot quite grasp.

Now...the fact that GDN stock tanked due to not finding anything...is something my dog could "quantify" after the event...lol...but what sort of "analysis" is that?

lol

But more importantly, we need to recognise that GDN suffered from questionable reporting...my view...AND just plain bad luck...but again, this changes nothing of my analysis of the structure at the time.

I seem to recall from the prospectus that some fairly well paid professionals came to a similar view?

Now we come to CVI...another poor call on my part, regardless of the market's demise.

I was initially attracted to their project at Catabola...then she simply grew...and grew...with numerous fingers in numerous pies, with oil and gas added to the mix at a time when oil was trading at some $145/barrel.

lol...who would NOT get excited about the prospect of moving seriously into this sector?. The potential for first mover advantage in Angola, a previously war-torn land, was very real in my view. I felt that back then...and still do now.

But...was there ever any real intention of actually progressing any of these assets to the extent shareholder value would be created, rather than assets shuffling from place to place?

Who knows...but somewhere along the way, the "dream" imploded...and if I am to be honest with myself, I suggest the transfer of Catabola and Longonjo to Fortitude, way back at the beginning, should have been the flag to give me reason to exit!

I posted at the time my displeasure with these developments...but continued to hold...in retrospect, perhaps I should have moved on?

As I have posted numerous times...every day in the market is a learning day...this applies to each and every one of us...I am not afraid to say that CVI taught me a very valuable, albeit costly lesson...one I will carry with me from this point forward!

Now...contrary to what some want you to believe (I have to question what they stand to gain for pushing this view by the way?)...I lost a significant amount of money on CVI...just like everyone else. Unlike others however, rather than whine and complain...and blame others...as the stock fell, I actually adopted a proactive stance, personally offering my services to the Company to help upgrade the quality of their presentations to the market.

Little good this did in the end...lol...but at least I did something to help reverse the slide, which is a lot more than most did.

What did YOU do to help with the health of your investment?

And for this I was set upon on these threads?

Anyway...at no point did I want this thread to be about me...it was meant to be about the nature of posters on this forum...and other forums...but for some reason, many seem to have taken offense at what is really a sanguine, non-emotive list of posting scenarios...and decided to turn it into some personal attack.

I guess this is the nature of some posters...I wonder which of the above categories THEY would put personal attacks under?

Ironically, those chastising me for posting my views here...are the very ones suggesting I do not have the right to question theirs?

lol

Nothing wrong with disagreeing, even forcefully...as long as it doesn't get personal...healthy debate is good for everyone.

Equally ironic are the posts which highlight one or two of my failed "calls" on stocks, clearly in order to make a point, yet ignore the good ones?

This is clearly a different sort of agenda posting...but agenda none the less. I have to admit, I have not quite worked this one out just yet, though I have several theories!

We all need to remember however, there are NO guarantees in speculative stocks, particularly the resources sector...this goes without saying.

Explorers can find stuff, or not...its a pretty basic risk/reward outcome actually...and even when they find stuff, it may or may not result in value adding to the stock in questions. So, whilst we can analyse a resource, or a prospect (or results), as much as we might like to, we can never actually control the final outcome from the markets perspective, especially when it comes to the performance of the stock...and by extension, we cannot ever fully control the performance of our portfolios.

To analyse or not to analyse?

For mine, even at the risk of getting it wrong from time to time, we are left with little choice but to analyse in one form or another, our potential investments when dealing with the speculative end of the market...I mean, who else is going to do it?

The alternative is to simply buy without researching, or indeed, simply not invest in these sorts of stocks...period!

So...if in fact we prefer NOT to do our own "analysis"...or perhaps feel we do not have the capacity to do so...I guess we should steer clear of the speculative end of the market where little if any widely available, professionally prepared analysis exists...and maybe chose to invest in the more topical stocks and/or market darlings...where research is more readily available...say resource stocks like RIO (down over 60%), or FMG (down over 80%)...both of which have seen plenty of reports released, with an equal number of buy recommendations over recent times.

Even WPL is down some 44%...plenty of calls to buy this in an energy starved world.

Or...perhaps if resource stocks aren't our thing, then a safe cyclical stock like...oh, I don't know...maybe a recession proof earner like ABC learning centers (down 100% = bust)...

lol...O.K. bad choice...mmm...how about we look at bricks and mortar, which are always safe in troubled times...maybe a long-term outlook stock like a property trust...maybe a stock like CNP (down over 99%)...in fact there are many here we could have chosen due to the numerous research papers doing the rounds, from all manner of professional types who ran their fingers of analysis over them.

If we still have not found something we fancy however....we may prefer the ultimate in safety, as boring as they might be, of investing with the likes of an international investment bank...mmm...something like BNB perhaps (down 100% = bust)??...or if we happen to feel uncomfortable about the health of the international economy, we might prefer to look closer to home, at say an Aussie centric lender, say to the local residential market..."as safe as houses"...mmm...say a stock like AZD (down over 99%).

Now...all of the above stocks have been "analysed" to death by others, which means, if we choose, we do not need to spend the effort doing our own research...we could have simply bought on the recommendations of others, namely, those doing the research!

mmm...in my mind...I think I would rather take my chances with my own analysis...even if it means I get the odd one wrong! At least I'll know I only have myself to blame for my investment/trading decisions...good and bad alike!

lol

Frankly, I have to say I do not understand why people fear the views of others. Nothing is forcing any of us to agree...or disagree, with each other...and nothing is stopping any of us from putting our case forward, against or for, if we feel reason to. As long as we do so respectfully, which includes providing reasoned argument, then what better use of the HotCopper experience for all of us?

It amazes me some can point the bone at others for presenting their views...yet in the very same breath, whilst preaching distain for said views, complain they are being prevented from posting their own?

lol...it really is a crazy place in here at times.

Cheers!