MSB 3.06% $1.01 mesoblast limited

MSB Trading 2020 - a new dawn, page-12540

  1. 75 Posts.
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    I try to be pessimistic with this sort of stuff and focus on the negatives:

    -Tasley wants out of CHF partnership (wouldn't take much discussion?)
    -ARDS is futile (discussion to make sure?)
    -Death or departure of exec team members (nothing in the news)
    -FDA does agree to use mortality as primary endpoint (too quick a turnaround?)
    -Unforeseen manufacturing issue (evaluating damage)

    Potential positives are:

    -FDA discussion confirms mortality can be used as the primary endpoint (quick turnaround)
    -ARDS overwhelming efficacy and a discussion to make sure the FDA will honour that
    -GvHD conditionally approved (discussion around conditions)
    -Partnership for CHF (too soon imo) or acquisition of tech
    -Company restructure/acquisition with a partner

    Everything else (CLBP +ve/-ve, GvHD not approved, etc.) could have just been a regular announcement and wouldn't have taken by surprise. It also would have been described as such by the trading halt request.

    I doubt Tasly would leave on the back of that data (one of the only things that could reduce CHF mortality is a massive deal guys, the only potential issue is bureaucracy requesting confirmatory trial) without the full report.

    Together - it looks like either ARDS futility/overwhelming efficacy or a company structure change, either in the exec or with an acquisition/Tasly leaving.

    Happy to have people criticise my lists, let me know what I've missed in each
 
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