Ann: Mesoblast Update on COVID-19 ARDS Trial, page-349

Mmmm …. well wheres the HC thread for “guess the share price if the Covid trial is stopped early for supreme futility”.

I think what is unfolding here is that MSB has been over-selling the strength of their early efficacy signals coming out of P1/2 for years. They have got away with this due to a very charismatic, super intelligent and forceful CEO – SI.

Which created some weird messiah type effect into a very unsophisticated market that lacks the technical skills to properly assess those early efficacy signals – and a weak ASX that lets companies get away with a lack of transparency in reporting their trial results.

Trading MSB has been pretty simple – “buy when they cry and sell when they yell”.

But you have the P3 back pain results due to drop any-day. So you turn to the question about the strength of the P2 results on which that P3 trial is based. And this is far from straight-forward to assess.

I think I need to increase the dosage on my meds. Little voices in my head are creating a conspiracy theory about all this stuff.

Why is it that the great hive mind of HC doesn’t weave its way to truth. You see heroic ramping posts on forums getting 200 TUs and this turns out to be a virtually an infallible indicator for imminent disaster.

And the transfer of wealth from the clever to the not so clever. The rich get richer. And all the while we hear that it is the contrarians are responsible for all the mums and dads being scared out of their shares and being unable to put Christmas gifts under the tree for the little children.

Fortunately the other little voice in my head tells me this is a question way beyond my pay-grade so I don’t need to worry about it.