a quick primer on ext

Hi,

everyone is asking themselves how high can this go? I bought EXT on a technical breakout back in Jan/Feb. Can't say I knew much about the company. Thank you to many of the long termers on here for their insights (simrose,lordelplus,harlee, and many others). Sometimes it is hard to find the wood for the trees on hotcopper. Good posts get diluted with rubbish. Here's a condensed version of what appears to be going on with EXT.

Punters
It was apparent to educated traders over the past few weeks that it was more than just 'crazed punters' driving the price up. That's what has kept some doomsayers out of EXT, whilst others have stayed in. Suspicions were confirmed with the recent substantial shareholder notices.

Corporate activity
This resource is on RIO's doorstep. It is already higher grade, and could prove to be larger than RIO's existing mine at Rossing. Do RIO want a neighbour with higher profit margins than themselves?

RIO wanted a JV, and there was an opportunity to get in cheap back in November. I am convinced the new corporate plays are aimed at MAINTAINING the EXT share price HIGH to force Rio into paying up.

Billion dollar company
For EXT to have a value of $1B whilst PDN is worth $2Bn makes no sense on the face of it. EXT is an explorer, PDN is a producer. However, PDN would be unlikely to produce the same output per year as EXT. Also PDN has higher operating costs because of the their geology.


3 Billion dollar company

Here's an extract from a link:

Forsys Metals, which is also developing uranium assets in Namibia, was recently acquired by George Forrest International. What sort of valuation does that takeover imply over Extract assets?

That’s a good question. The George Forrest appears to have paid 9 US dollars per pound for the Valencia deposit held by Forsys. Valencia is a very similar type of deposit to Rossing South but it is very low grade so it was interesting that they seem to have paid such a high price. If we were to apply that $9 to the Rossing South Zone 1 resource and the Ida Dome £25 million resource, you have a valuation of US$1.2 billion on Extract. At the same time Extract has announced that it will have its Zone 2 resource by the end of July or early August and their upper end target there is £105 million. Kalahari are very confident that that is easily achievable and particularly with the results they brought out this morning. So you can add on there another 1.15 billion, which would give a total value to the uranium assets in Namibia of US$2.345 billion, of which Kalahari holds 40 percent.



Where's the link?

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/4885/kalahari-minerals-mark-hohnen-speaks-to-proactiveinvestors-4885.html

This link is a must read.

Conclusion
For EXT to potentially be worth triple its current value by August means I continue to hold. I would expect high volatility in the share price (up or down 10% in one day) - so it may not be an 'easy' ride for the faint hearted.


I am sorry if this is all 'old news' for some people. It's just that the recent posting volume on EXT has made it very hard to figure out just what was going on.

To cut through all this BMN vs. EXT discussion, just take a look at where the big money is going. RIO owns 15% of EXT, how much of BMN do they own? Now we have a guy who has spent $20million in 2 days on EXT shares (plus some). If he is in such a hurry, there must be some truth to the article posted in the link.


Joel