I disagree. If there was a trend towards 30% or 40% reduction in mortality, even if it wouldn't provide a successful outcome it wouldn't have been stopped. If it was 35%, as some people suggest, then at 60% recruitment there would still be a decent chance of success.
So no, I think the effect on mortality was very small and maybe getting smaller, that's why the DSMB threw in the towel. The greater the number of recruited patients, the truer the effect...
Novartis deal on the rocks, page-74
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