They know the death rate of A+B (i.e. all the patients in the trial) and they know the death rate of C (i.e patients not in the trial). If the death rate of the patients in the trial is the same as the death rate of the patients outside of the trial then A+B ~= C. If the treatment is highly effective then A+B ~= 0.5C.
Putting this into numbers if C is 60% and A+B is 60% then you know that B is 60% (i.e. a dud). If B was 10% (i.e. very effective) then A+B is 35%.
Novartis deal on the rocks, page-112
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