back of envelope projections for value, page-12

ASXrat,

I agree you can't really make a serious assessment of fundamentals on a spec. My calculation were just trying to point out how silly some of the SP estimate claims are over the last few weeks.

I have posted that GDN is a fair trade due to the amount of hype - but it is definitely not one to invest in as every figure I can arrive at say it is worth less than the current SP even with a great result on this well.

For GDN to really have value far beyond 10c they would need 6-7mmcf/d on DST. What I pointed out is very valid - when one well in a formation produces like a dog - it is unlikely the others will produce much better.

It is possible that the previous well hit a great formation in a thin area or low porosity area, and that this and all others will be great wells - but having one relative dud the odds are stacked against this being a great well.

The only chance of GDN really "making it" is if this well is a great well - 6mmcf/d plus - as only that will hold the SP high enough for long enough to get the options exercised - and dilution at 20c would be acceptable. If this is fair or poor the SP will be caned down to all-time lows - as two dud wells on a prospect means the chance of great success on a third is near zero.

Who knows the chance of a great well here - but given overall in the US only about 5-10% of holes sunk would fall into that category, and they already have one "relatively" dud well - the chances aren't likely to be more than a couple of percent.

Yes I was a past holder and yes I did lose a little money on GDN but not much due to a stop at break-even that got rid of most of them. I am not bitter about losing a bit of money on GDN - you expect to win some and lose some - that is the nature of the game.

No I have no interest in buying back into GDN - once bitten, twice shy - as they say. I now look at companies I invest in much more closely after the last 24months turmoil. Integrity of directors, sensible business plan, honest announcements are all things I now require.

Does anyone remember a director of GDN selling a large number of their shares close to the release of the news that killed GDN - I think that director had done his homework on the true value of the potential and hence sold at about 80c. The company is almost three times more diluted since then and has had a dud well - so think about that.

This is my last post on GDN during this well. Adios and I hope you all do well in your trading on GDN - just don't believe the hype please and have tight stop losses.