Viralytics 2.0 - but better

In February 2018, VLA was bought out by Merck for I believe $394M USD or thereabouts, equating to about $500M AUD at the time.

The main drivers of the VLA buyout were:

- Quite good data in Melanoma
- Good results in other cancer types, bladder cancer and I think maybe 1 or 2 more, I cannot remember off the top of my head.

Melanoma trials were their most advanced trials, but they had not reached the point of giving any OS readouts, and nothing had been past a Phase 2. They did Cap raise about a month before the acquisition, and this may have given them some stronger leverage at the negotiation table, but I am still of the belief VLA was bought by Merck very cheap.

I have frequented the IMM forum often around data readouts, and have kept saying this company will be bought out. Others disagree which is completely fine, everyone has their own opinion and I respect that, ie the idea that IMM will look to licence out their drugs and play the long game. Is it possible? Definitely. Do I personally think it'll go this way? No.

VLA were doing trials with Merck, much akin to the trials the IMM are doing with Merck, not to mention the multiple other companies that they are doing cancer trials with.

What differentiates the two, and makes IMM better (their Melanoma data are essentially comparable), are these points:

- Much more advanced data in many more profound cancer types, namely lung cancer
- Great data in combo with Keytruda in NSCLC and H&N Cancer, much better than Keytruda alone
- The potential to show that the Lag 3 treatment path works which is the validation of a whole new field of immunotherapy
- Relatively good data in breast cancer in respect to their OS readout ( I only say relatively good because the trial did not show a stat sig benefit over the whole population group, rather just subsets, with the main one being patients aged less than 65)
- The fact that Breast Cancer is not an immuno-responsive treatment, but Efti made it one
-If it can make a type of cancer that shouldn't respoind to immunotherapy, what will this mean for cancer types where they are responsive to immunotherapy (ie H&N and NSCLC - we have already seen a glimpse of what it can do)
- Not being a one trick pony - VLA only had Cavatak, but IMM has Efti, Lag525 and all their autoimmune drugs
- Potentially a path to market with their Breast cancer data in Europe (this ones up for debate and whether or not they will lodge for approval with only a ~2 month OS benefit over the whole patient population, but > 7 months in other subsets may be enough for the EU to give it the greenlight as being given Efti only has the potential to help the patients in comparison to SOC alone)
- Plans for a registrational trial in 1st line H&N Cancer
- An additional 74 patients in NSCLC patients, with this likely to show replicating results that we have seen in Tacti-002

Right now, the AUD is very cheap for a US buyer, as they get a massive discount purely because of the FX situation. @ahjay posted earlier today that Merck is looking for bolt on acquisitions in 2021, and if this is not a candidate for a bolt on acquisition to strengthen Keytrudas position in H&N and NSCLC treatments, I don't know what is.

In recent presentations, there has been a slide showing commercial transactions in oncology, which under my own mosaic theory is that possibly the company is alluding to a set up for an acquisition. The question is, what will be the final catalyst that will make Merck (or someone else) pull the trigger? Will it be a lodgement for approval in Europe, or approval itself? Will it be continued good data in the open label trials? Will it be big pharma just wanting to strengthen their own pipeline? Will it be large IMM shareholders pressuring mgmt to bring forward gains by way of an acqusition rather than through organic growth (which is much more risky trying to take everything to market itself but does result in a better payoff if successful). Will it be IMM waiting it out themselves and getting that extra data to ensure that the buyout is at the highest possible price?

Me personally, if offered a deal of $1BN AUD right now all in cash upfront with no milestones, id be happy. But management/other shareholders may want something bigger, ie a back ended acquisition that could pay much more than $1BN over the long run if approvals are gained in multiple indications. Hey, I'll take that too.

Anyway, thats my food for thought on this new years day, because on 1st Jan 2022, I do not think IMM will exist as a company (and no, not because of bankruptcy).

Either way, I hope patients benefit from anything that comes out from this company as many/if not all of us know someone who has succumbed to cancer or beaten it, and odds are, some of us on this forum will get it one day, and if Efti ends up saving our lives down the line, I am glad to have been part of the company to help those in need, as well as profiting as an investor.