why bmn is better than ext, page-19

Blackrivered,

Had a few moments, here is my response:

Assumption 1: The takeover price is a function of the current share price.

Response: This is because you are more used to companies where the shareholder base is largely retail and therefore the ASX shareprice is what the shareholders will focus on as a baseline. In EXT's case the top 20 (mostly institutional investors) control over 80% of the shares (probably about 83% atm). The top 50 shareholders probably (I am not sure) control about 88% of the shares.

Therefore the appeal is not to disorganised rabble but to a centralised core of sophisticated investors who have been holding this stock for many years.

That core is very aware of the corporate value of the resource and they are also aware of how pitifully dissimilar the current market cap is to that figure. They are aware of the value to RIO in particular. I think you need to assess the situation in terms of remaining minelife and profitability for Rossing and the geographic advantages of Rossing South for Rio.

Information 1: You ask "stil feasability studies etc to go through, do you have the funds to complete"

Response: From this it is clear you have only done cursory research and yet have made bold conclusions. I suggest you go and read the company reports before making and stating conclusions. You sound quite intelligent, why would you be so bold when you have clearly not got all the necessary information at your fingertips?

Assumption 2: "RIO has their own issue at present and a take over will not happen till they sort that out"

Response: How do you know? I am quite happy to state I don't know what effect RIO's current situation has on their decision making. It seems to me you are not reticent to draw a long bow. You are certain that the RIO organisation can only focus on one issue at a time? Do you know something we don't?

The rest of your post shows the same basic focus on the ASX share price as the foundation of your decision. If you can break away from that I think you will see things more clearly.