Bit of fun ... What drop will we see on Monday, page-16

AIMO

Jan 2018 sp was at 1.20.

Then came -
1. Over supply (Supported by stock reserves and slow EV market adoption)
2. New Aus government who fragged the endorsement of renewables and moved Aus away from renewables.
3. Trump administration fragged the endorsement of renewables and moved America away from the Paris agreement and away from renewables.
4. WA cyclones
5. COVID Border lock downs etc.. restricting workers
6. Changes to 457 visas restricting workers
7. Shorters tree shaking the crap out of this stock based on three years of global issues.
8. PLS have put all its eggs into Asian agreements
9. Fake news cast constant doubt on EV uptake
10 Fake news constantly stated lithium energy storage would be replaced with Hydrogen and other fuel sources. This was also exacerbated by a Morgan Stanley report on over supply.
11. We saw working Li mining start-up's with heavy debt and dishonoured offtake agreements go under. AJM, TAW and others fell victim.
12. Upstream spodumene processing required for Lithium Extraction vs salt lake ready to market chemical grade production and costs.
13. China trade war, hacking scandals, fake reporting and agreement dishonours.


Then, we have the crystal ball for this year -

AIMO the long termers will no doubt secure capital on this stock over the next few weeks. This will be bolstered based on no gains over the past three years and many wishing they had secured back in 2018. So wouldn't be surprised to see some heavy retrace on the SP coupled with the cash in/dilution for the recent SP offer. However with shorters jumping back in, the SP may float for a while after the instos cash in, but while the market looks bright for Li - it also did so back in 2018 and there are many things that need to happen to keep the SP on the up and up besides a strong demand in December and Li price hike.

I reckon it is all blue skies for PLS, but a lot of the below will come in dribs and drabs and may take ages to come into play.

1. COVID is still here - but Aus is an island and we're not impacted like the rest of the world. Also vaccines are coming.
2. With the changes in American policies, Biden's government has promised to re-join the Paris agreement and make massive policy changes towards renewables. (Now that the democrats have control of the senate - this should move ahead unimpeded)
3. Hopefully Ken will diversify PLS offtake agreements away from Asia, which will kick start revenue. That said,
4. As PLS picked the meat of the bone and acquired AJM - a fully working mine some great opportunities will come out from this. (two working mines under one management)
5. Hopefully Ken will sort logistics to use rail over trucks
6. Hopefully Ken will build a processing plant for LI extraction and or enter into agreement with an existing.
7. Now that Tesla has dominated and proven the EV market and governments are moving to non fossil fuel commitments - auto manufacturers are scrambling to change and commit to the EV space.
8. Aus government will have to follow suit adopting or risk being globally ridiculed and embarrassed, which will have extreme voter consequences. Another climate disaster will NOT go down well for them if they continue to ignore the science.

For mine - im watching the global EV sales and basing my investment on this. If Li is the new black gold, then Australia is the new Emirates.