Covid 19 Dramatic Fall in Deaths Goes Unreported, page-123

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fdKen

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12/01/21

06:24

Post #: 50099016
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Originally posted by madamswer: ↑

"Your analysis is flawed."

1. Deaths @ end of Week 44: 77,541
2. 2020 Total Deaths Expected (according to @fdKen): 95,000

=> Deaths to occur in final 8 weeks = 95,000 -77,541 = 17,459

3. Historical Average Deaths in Final 8 Weeks of the Year = 13,926

=> Required Ratio of Deaths in Final 8 Weeks of 2020 compared to History = 17,459 / 13,926 = 1.25.

Please show were my analysis is flawed.

.

Expand

You asked me to show why your analysis is flawed.

Latest information just published for 2020 show 97164 deaths year to date. And even that data is not complete.

I have previously shown you the link to the preliminary statistics page.

The final figure when published in February will obviously be higher.

Originally posted by madamswer: ↑

Instead of just blindly accepting whatever it is you read in the media, maybe you should actually sometimes think about what it is you are reading.

For starters, you are citing a report which makes predictions based on data up until 31 August.

It is now three months later than that.

So let's do some thinking about this (as opposed to blindly parroting a media report based on aged data):

As of Week 44 of this year, Sweden has recorded 77,541 deaths (source: Max Plank Institute for Demogrpahic Research/University of Berkeley, California as presented in mortality.org)

Based on your ...uh... source (the media), to reach 95,000 deaths for this year, Sweden will need to record 17,459 deaths in the final 8 weeks of this year.

Now let's place that in the context of history:

Swedish Deaths in the Final 8 Weeks:
2015: 13,695
2016: 14,560
2017: 14,107
2018: 13,501
2019: 13,766
Average = 13,926

So, you are saying 17,500 deaths to happen, compared to less than the historical norm of less than 14,000.

In other words, the death rate in the last 8 weeks of this year will be a full 25% higher than normal.

Viewed another way, in the first 44 weeks of 2020, Swedish deaths have been running at a level which is around 4% higher than the averages of the same period of the preceding 5 years.

But according to your source, in the remaining 8 weeks of the year the death rate is going to somehow ratchet up to a level 25% higher than that recorded in the past.

It is yet another alarmist "modeled" Covid prediction that is not worth a bucket of warm spit.

I call BS.

Unadulterated horse manure is what you are peddling.
(Again)

.

.

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Perhaps you may wish to retract your claim of BS
@aatisket @GCar
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Covid 19 Dramatic Fall in Deaths Goes Unreported, page-123

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Covid 19 Dramatic Fall in Deaths Goes Unreported, page-123

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