Hi Sam.
Firstly, for disclosure purposes, I am a holder of both BUY and BPH.
From my understanding, BUY did their recent 'shaft current holders' CR at 1c to sure up funds for other O&G developments in 2021; not for PEP-11. I believe that this was stated somewhere on the document, if my memory is not mistaken. The Sophs have funded this, so regardless of the success/failure of the drill bit at PEP-11 (and yes, I have heard the quotes of 79% chance of success...so still 21% chance of finding nothing), BUY will continue on, and most likely expand production (and therefore income) of their much smaller projects, regardless of the outcome of PEP-11. This is one of the benefits of BUY (both BUY and BPH have their own strengths); it has the security of other income already coming in under its own name and a plan to further develop in this area.
As Advent (and BPH really through David Breeze) are driving PEP-11, BUY are understandably the onlookers at present. I believe that Phil Kelso will keep all current cash, CR funds from the 1c placement, and production profits from the last quarter and this first quarter, for other non-PEP-11 BUY developments. This covers the post PEP-11 outlook for BUY in a 'worst-case' scenario. There is no need for a SPP yet prior to NOPTA, and if any 'partial down payment' was suddenly required for PEP-11 in the immediate, there would be sufficient funds (based on incoming profits, the CR and bank funds) to cover this. Assuming that NOPTA gives PEP-11 a green light (and I believe that it will), management would let the SP run on approval for a short time (similar idea to that mentioned by GB), and run it will, then drop a SPP at a much higher SP with an attached option involved to sweeten the deal for current holders. Funding will be very easy: every man, woman, cat and dog will be wanting to get on board the PEP-11 gravy train by then. In many ways, this is a repeat of the 2009/10 drilling experience. If PEP-11 is a duster, then BUY goes forward on its smaller pre-existing projects and seeks new ones. If PEP-11 is a gusher, then all happy. Either way, a consolidation could occur later on.
I am currently working on a ratio of BUY: BPH at 1:3.5, allowing for current potential of BPH to be increasing its holding in the JV via an expanded holding in Advent. I place .6c for cash reserves (with CR funds added) in BUY's SP. So, for me, this places BUY at 1.1c - 1.2c valuation for PEP-11 (assuming BUY at current 1.7/1.8c SP). Until today, BPH at 4.2c was aligned with this ratio. Obviously BPH has risen today, so I'm expecting that BUY will see a rise at some stage over the next couple of days as new investors re-value the companies, just as BUY 'caught up' recently.
Personally, I have been adding more BUY when it has been undervalued (IMHO) compared to BPH. I'm happy with my BPH holdings and see the potential of a SPP with BUY as a nice carrot (as it was a decade ago). Again, JMHO and no guarantee on this.
All the best with your investments.
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