Candy Club ($1+ price target): Becoming the largest speciality market confectionary brand in the US, page-90

Hey @zereal, that's a really valid point, thank you. It would be worth sharing how the total number of shares that are "in the money" increases with the share price, due to likely option conversion.

Let's assume for the sake of simplicity, that on a fully diluted basis (shares, options, performance rights etc.), we have the maximum ~450M shares on issue. Under this assumption and also under the assumption of a USD/AUD conversion of 1.29, I arrive at the following:

The columns represent the revenue multiple at the point of a potential liquidity event. We've seen that recent transactions in the same industry have led to 8-10x revenue multiples at the point of sale. Personally, I think a 4-6x multiple is more likely, but I wouldn't be at all unhappy with something more!

The rows represent the run-rate in USD (millions) at the time of a potential liquidity event. These range from $30M USD (the scale threshold at which CLB will start to be on the radar of PE firms etc.) up to $50M USD, which is the 24-month aspirational target set by Candy Club.

The corresponding cell is the fair value share price on a fully diluted basis (in AUD/share), calculated by multiplying the sales run rate by the revenue multiple and dividing by the total number of SOI.



T.E.P.