CSL possible pull back to low $200's, page-215

Personally I don't think dividend yield is the issue.
Few would be buying/selling in CSL dividend (lol it doesn't pay much to be a criteria).

My hypotheses is that because the market as a whole (including me)recognises that CSL is an underlying quality company it can trade consistently above its current intrinsic value because of FUTURE growth.

However, because this recognition is so broadly accepted, the current share price has been too high (but becoming less so as the share price falls) against even near term future intrinsic value.

Essentially historical price rises over the last two years has captured near term (and by near term I am talking 5yr+ of future earnings growth).

So in basic English the market for CSL has got way ahead of itself.

The other side of my argument is that CSL Australian EPS has been, historically, greatly assisted by a 8yr downswing in AUD to US$. This has provided an historical tailwind to AUD translated earnings.

But this is now seriously reversing with the low point probably being March/April 2020 (which correlated with the APR spike in CSL share price)


So in summary
Yes CSL is a great underlying company worthy of investing, but not at ANY price.
Those that over pay to purchase the stock have a much higher probability of achieving sub-par future returns on their investments.

Cheeze this is finance 101, it's not rocket science