I agree they will get somewhere around 80% acceptance. This will leave $10m in notes outstanding.
Do I think they will get $1b in finance to build a mine? - no. Do I think they will be able to find $10m to pay out a few noteholders in 15 months - you betcha.
If you don't think AXO will have $10m in 15 months, then I have no idea why you would hold the AXO ords. Even unsecured creditors rank above ordinary shareholders.
You may try scaring people into selling their notes for half price, many will take the two birds in 15 months, without the risk of dilution that AXO holders face, and a massive stock overhang in 6 months.
DYOR
AXO Price at posting:
24.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held