@Andredamus1I continue to hold all of my original (and subsequent) Afterpay purchases in my longterm account, which is one of three distinct portfolios.
The other portfolios - one of which is leveraged - are for position trading where technical factors dictate all buy and sell decisions (akin to Livermore, Darvas, Weinstein and O'Neil). From memory, I've traded relatively small parcels in Afterpay perhaps half a dozen times over the past years.
In my experience, the danger with trading around the edges of a major longterm holding is that the short-term factors/concerns can saturate, and, ultimately, distort the longterm investors psyche, generating mixed signals which can result in suboptimal selling decisions. To my detriment, I sold out of a longterm holding in CDA not long after I had been stopped out of a large position trade in this same stock, which was a clear demonstration to me of how easy it is to unintentionally conflate distinct investment/trading strategies.
Given Afterpay is now my largest holding, to remove undue fear and greed taking hold, I basically took the decision to forgo actively trading it (or even thinking about such things). In the grand scheme of things, any likely short-term trading profits from Afterpay will be incidental to the projected returns that could be realised from a longterm hold.
In terms of getting close to selling Afterpay, there have been numerous occasions when I've had to reassess my investment thesis, but the only time when there was a realistic possibility of entering a sell order was during the depths of the Covid market panic. Many of us will be familiar with the sage advice of selling down to a level where you can sleep comfortably at night, but one must experience these emotions before they can truly learn from such advice.
My first and, thankfully, only Afterpay-induced sleepless night centred on loss aversion, alternative use of funds and pure ego about being wrong. For the next few days, I avoided looking at the stock ticker and returned to my investment plan and notes. In the cold light of day, loss aversion didn't have too much of a hold on me - I simply put my portfolio losses into the context of overall net worth, which had retreated back to a level it was at 12 or 13 months prior. Assessing alternative use of funds wasn't too taxing either - the whole market was plummeting, so it was still too early to judge who the new market leaders would be. In addition, my other portfolios were 70%+ cash, so releasing more funds was unlikely to be beneficial in my particular circumstances. The matter of ego was much more complex. I returned to my (written) Afterpay thesis and sought to challenge my assumptions especially concerning the propensity for bad debts; ultimately concluding that even if my blue sky thesis was wrong, it'd also be wrong to sell at a time when the overall market was oversold. For longterm investors, often the best decision is to do nothing. In effect, I had deferred my sell decision - preferring to wait for the dust to settle and await the next business update.
Most recently, Paypal's latest attempt at entering the BNPL market appears to have spooked many investors. I can understand why this rattled so many people, but in my view it was not a valid investment reason to sell (although this is not to say that personal reasons cannot nor should not trump investment reasons on occasion). The BNPL sector is in hypergrowth, is it any wonder that the bigger boys start to take an active interest? Paypal's intent to take a slice of the (ever growing) cake is a signal to note, but the effects will not be known for another 12-24 months. The vigilant Afterpay investor should therefore continue to monitor the competition, but refrain from any kneejerk reactions. Just as one should consider the threat and likely implications of Paypal et al entering the scene, one should also consider potential benefits and positive repercussions.
One final point, please don't mistake my ramblings for an Afterpay "buy and hold investor to the death". There comes a time to sell every company and Afterpay's time will surely come. Was the zenith last Friday or perhaps next week, next month, or next year? Nobody knows (including the insiders). In the meantime, i'll continue to keep abreast of market cycles, sector developments and company specifics, and enjoy the ride for as long as it lasts.
