Hey Steve
Thanks again for your analysis. You beehaven a busy boy
I guess we won't know how the company arrived at its estimates until we see the final report and understand the accounting treatments.
A number of issues though will affect the NPAT figure. Some are 'known knowns', some 'known unknowns' and some 'unknown unknowns'. Ha!
Known Knowns:
1. Bonuses to management have to be expensed. Off the top of my head @$600k for Charles and Ivan's bonus that got up a couple of months back. That's for this year. The 2(?) subsequent years' treatments I would have thought will go to the Balance Sheet. But you never know.
Known Unknowns:
1. R&D and inventory builds for the '3' new models to be released. Again, some of that stuff might go to the B/S but some might go to the P&L.
2. The cost associated with the 'new' Shanghai R&D headquarters will most likely be capitalised as might preliminary work associated with the 'battery swapping network'. But some of it could be expensed.
3. Costs associated with the 'new' R and S series might have expenses associated with them. Again, there is a question mark over what accounting treatment that will get but we will find out eventually.
Unknown Unknowns:
1. 'Rumours' associated with new manufacturing premises / capabilities could have some 'real' effect on the financials. But again, if true will they could be expensed or capitalised or receive a mixed treatment.
So lot's of stuff may or may not be impacting the yet to be finalised 2020 financials.
It is not necessarily an indication one way or the other about the the sales volume in Q4.
What we do know is the Q1,21 will be boosted by the announcement last week. Ducati deal got to drop sonn, new models etc.
All terrific stuff!
But as usual, we shareholders are a little in the dark about the 'full strategic plan'.
Hopefully that will be corrected with a belter of an update (not Q4 but forward looking strategic plan).
Exciting days ahead. A bit of clarity though would, IMO, see the SP much, much, much, much, higher than where it currently resides.
Cheers
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