AT1 FY21 - General Discussion + FA, page-647

I agree with no news this share price will simply stay at 30 cents. No reason to go up or reason to go down. The grind down was indeed reflective of the no news. And the Q told us why there was no news. Because there was no news (aside from NG Biotech throwing in the towel).

My thinking has not changed in the last 6 weeks. The next news will be very good news. Given NG Biotech is not buying anymore from us, can we guess the baseline (no growth from here) is still min $2mill a Q sales. At least we have another Q of data now. Are there any other partners that can throw in the towel? I think not. And the $400k sales in Australia for the covid antibody test was much better than I hoped. And that was only for half a Q of sales. Can we guess there may be $1 mill of sales for this device per Q for the next few Qs?

The Access Bio agreement is a min (guaranteed) 2 mill units from now until 2nd Sep into North America.

The 300k units bought by NG Biotech in this Q needs to be replaced by other sellers in Europe (UK specifically I think will be the new market since NG Bio have opted out of exclusivity).

The HIV sales do not give numbers, but say they are expanding.

So even with no big new sales this Q3 we have as a base the following

- the Aussie Ab test in market and growing and was already $400k last Q
- the NG Biotech 260k units this Q is covered by the Access Bio (already on the books) 260k units for this Q
- the HIV (unknown numbers) is expanding
- the remaining 1.7 mill units for Access Bio (before end Sept) will likely come in a big hit once FDA approval given (the explanation for the delay was they are asking to go into more venues with the test... so the 2 mill total units is a min... it can only increase)

not in base case....
- Lumos is an OEM 'thing' so that is just fruit for the sideboard... but it could be (will be) a lot of fruit... ONE DAY
- India approval for antigen tests... it 'could be' big and all at once

I guess the interesting thing is we (me) are counting what is happening to the tune of 100s of thousands of units. One sale can turn that into MILLIONS of units. And they are ramped up for 1.3 mill units manufacture ability NOW. With up to 1.8 mill units (mix of types) a month in this current Q. So they can MAKE 20+ mill units a year. And the OEM can be ANY NUMBER the OEM partner wants to make.

So our quiet Q was $2 mill in sales. As a base there is no way we can be UNDER that in any Q going forward. Maybe someone can do the maths for me, but what is the 2mill units guaranteed to Access Bio worth re sales. Are these the $3 items. So we can pencil in $6 mill revenue right there.

Between now and Sept (next 3 Qs) can I say $6 mill sales to Access Bio, $3 mill sales in Australia for antibody, $3 mil in sales for HIV kits worldwide.... as a base case... that is $4 mill a Q in revenue... without any new sugar hit from antigen resell, or Lumos OEM.

As I look at detail I am more positive to the Q report and the future. If it gets to 28 cents... I will buying more, And I will not be selling one share for quite some time. This has a minimal downside and a huge upside.