Possibility Of Army Coup In Myanmar, page-49

I agree with most of what you've said here, but I want to speak to your 2nd point in the post.

"Internationally, this would go down very badly - would further destroy Myanmar's relations with the west, bring likely sanctions, and kill off foreign investment. The military would be blamed for all this."

Yes, it would go down badly. But I wouldn't go thinking the Wests 'disapproval' of any coup is a deterrent to any army leading it. If you look back at unstable countries in the past like the Chile & Argentina of the 70's & 80's, Cambodia, Uganda, Iran, not to mention Zimbabwe, what the West thought of their actions, and the consequences that would follow, didn't weigh too heavily upon their shoulders.

Army Generals in unstable countries not only have guns, but they also tend to have agendas as well, possibly ones that don't always meet with the wishes and desires of the citizens.

All I'm trying to point out is just because we wouldn't think highly of a coup taking place, doesn't mean it wouldn't happen.