FMG 4.01% $19.73 fortescue ltd

Ann: Quarterly Production Report, page-34

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  1. 10,050 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 4348
    I correctly predicted a +$1B cash to debt position as at 30 sept.
    I called for a +$3B cash position by 31 Dec, but no its $0
    Looks like the cash burn has been blown on divys, tax, capex as AISC are the same and sales revenues not as high as should be compared to IOP rise as discounted for 68% FeO.
    Looks like they spent $1B on infrastructure R&D whose ROI is doubtful, in fact it has not reduced AISC at all in Q2, which remained same.
    Looks like they are not getting the full benefit of this IOP rise.

    I have to now change my forecasts for Q3 from +$6B to +$2B as a result a big drop away in projections.
    Now we know why they didnt paydown their junk bond debt, they dont have the net cash to do it with as they lost $1.1B cash instead of adding $2B cash.

    Cashburn is a serious problem and an warning bell for market analysts INSTOs. You will soon see, pressure on divy here.
    If they are losing cash with IOP at 170 what will they be doing when IOP is 80 or less as predicted by IMF the Feds and WA Govt?!
    Serious question.



    Last edited by tomboy: 28/01/21
 
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