Financial Analysis and funding scenarios, page-8

Good effort there! I punched some numbers starting from your assumptions then changing one or more variables at a time

I took the liberty of disregarding your NPV of $3.7bn as the latest NPV given is $2.8bn (https://www.tngltd.com.au/project/mount-peake-v-ti-fe/overview/) and imo it will go lower still once FEED is completed

Scenarios:
1. same inputs you used ($12bn CAPEX, 70/30 debt/equity ratio, $0.20 cap raise price and modified NPV of $2.8bn)
2. Reduced the CAPEX to the latest official one of $824m. I agree with you it will likely be higher
3. Increased debt/equity to 0.65/0.35
4. Cap raise done at $0.15 (options not in the money)
5. Cap raise done at $0.25. Options in the money but I haven't back-fed the option conversions due to laziness - this should amount to ~$22m (87m options at time of last cap raise + 37m options to Sanlam, all converted at $0.18)
6. NPV reduced by 20% to $2.24bn
7. A sort of 'worst case scenario': $2.2bn CAPEX, 35% equity, Cap Raise at $0.15, NPV reduced by 20%

Note the bottom line MV for performance calculations: directors/management performance share don't vest unless the market value of the shares as of the AGM doesn't exceed $500m, so the 1.2bn shares currently in issue need to be worth $500m (I think the 1.245bn shares include the latest Sanlam ones but the difference is immaterial).

I personally use this as the realistic goal for now. Even in the worst case scenario that MV would theoretically be exceeded and performance shares vest, so it's not too far fetched to get there.