TLG - Media, page-926

Here's what I do with every single one of these SPAC's ... BEFORE EVEN LOOKING at the business itself.

With this one (Microvast), there is a direct competitor in Romeo and a sort of competitor in Freyr and Quantumscape (which I think is there simply to highlight either overvaluation or aspiration for those greedy enough)

Here's the basic comparison table.

1. The RED shaded box is the most recent closing.

2. Most all SPAC's list at $10 ... so that column is the base level for multiple comparison. Now its just a case of "how far forward" in time is the most relevant to look at. FY'23 is probably the most reasonable. That read across has RMO = 2.4, Microvast = 3.5 & Freyr = 2.5 .. so at that point I'm paying more for Microvast.

3. The green box is the price I paid and the yellow box is my target buy on dip for those other two. So basically will pay the same $ multiple for Revenue for RMO and a premium for Microvast ... but is it worth more???

4. As you dissect presentations you sometimes come across disingenuous comparison ... like Microvast directing you to look at FY'24 and FY'25 Aggregate Value to Revenue (same as EV/Revenue) which I cut and show as follows



and comparing their multiple at the $10 listing (1.6X) to RMO multiple at most recent close of 1.8X (or thereabouts) instead of at listing $10 which was 0.9X ... reality is buying today cost you 4.4X compared to RMO 1.8X




Not going to delve into the EBITDA comparison or margins.

What I have to do is figure out if Microvast warrants a premium over RMO ... otherwise I'm content to pay the yellow box price.

Freyr seems a bargain but then the business is different .. manufacture of cells not packs ... so in concept Freyr would sell to RMO and Microvast





(Good) News flow is what's needed for TLG now and lots of it to keep momentum building.