I'm glad you're not getting paid, that makes two of us even though you have pedalled such accusations in the past. Let's leave the past in the past though.
I'm not suggesting there aren't looming supply deficits need to be filled, all the wannabe developers proudly reproduce the predicted deficits in their feasibility studies along with predicted price rises (for all 3 major products). There is no question there are higher prices coming and a need for some new mines to come on line. My point is there are only so room for mine expansions (Kenmare etc) and new projects, it's typical bulk mining industry stuff. Large deposits such as we're discussing typically start off at 30+ year mine lives then expand and keep growing into their large amount of lower grade resources, leveraging off the considerable amount of paid down infrastructure. Prices sometimes spike but market forces bring them back to marginal soon enough and the industry plods on. Prices steadily rise over time through the cycles reflecting the marginal cost to balance the market... economic 101.
There is only so much demand for each type of TiO2 product, and global production is around say 8mt of TiO2 units (Rutile is ~96% of a TiO2 unit, Chloride Ilm is ~58% of a unit, Corridor ilmenite is ~48% of a TiO2 unit etc)
Tolliara would produce 5% of the global TiO2 untis if it gets developed, Thunderbird 3.5%... these are large incremental supply additions to swallow at once. Iluka like Kenmare has plans to grow their TiO2 production not give up market share, RIO is bringing on Zulti South to maintain produciton for at least another 20 years, Ticor has a similar supply pipeline. There must be 20 min sand developers all trying to squeeze into whatever supply deficit arises... from Greenland, USA, Sri lanka, Australia, Africa obviously.
Again, financiers and equity funders will be looking very closely at the margins and margin for safety before giving any one new development a tick over the others. Nobody wants to go broke after building their shiny new mine into a global downturn, especially equity holders who get wiped out. What is the supply-demand balance for each projects specific products is a key question they will consider. Take MRQ's Corridor for example. It will have to compete in a relatively small segment of the market against the 100 pound gorilla next door by the name of Corridor 1.
The Chinese have only built a starter pit while trying to either sell it or raise money to build a port jetty and expand production to a meaningful rate. When they someone else eventually gets the required plant/infrastrsure in place, that deposit (largest in the world and much higher grade than MRQ's) will fill any supply gap for 'Corridor's' particular type of Ilmenite product for well over 100 years one would think. Who's going to invest hundreds of millions into a smaller, higher cost (lower grades, lower value assemblage and less economies of scale) project just down the road when Corridor 1 will supply that market for 100 years and win any price war or global downturn that eventuates?! Really, it makes no sense...
(20min delay)