Valuation Analysis - NST and SAR Merger 22nd Oct 2020, page-137

Yes, everything turns on the POG being willing.

The argument that has been put about by the boogeyman wavers is that the GDX ETF already owns chunk of NST and that its appetite for more NST will not be enough to absorb the NST that are presently in the GDXJ ETF if NST gets thrown out for being too fat.

As of 3 Feb,the GDX ETF already holds 63m NST and 6m SAR, which will convert to 65.3m NST.
https://www.vaneck.com/etf/equity/gdx/holdings/
That compares with 45.4m NST and 4.7m SAR, which will convert to 47.1m NST in the GDXJ.

I don't think that matters because there will be plenty of other demand from other institutions or funds that will feel obliged to hold the enlarged NST.
Since when did moving up a league in terms of capitalisation cause a stock to be less extensively held by institutions?

There were 46m NST shares traded last Wednesday and the GDXJ ETF entitlement to NST shares hardly changed as a result.

Cheers