BOT 16.9% 38.0¢ botanix pharmaceuticals ltd

Ann: Phase 2a Study Shows BTX 1801 Eradicates S. Aureus, page-581

  1. 205 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 75



    This statement does not stack up:
    "Results of the BTX 1801 Study show the two formulations of BTX 1801 met the Study endpoints.
    Firstly, BTX 1801 was safe and well tolerated, with all 66 enrolled participants successfully completing
    the 1801 Study with each group (ointment, gel and vehicle) consisting of 22 participants"



    Botanix announced that:

    The ointment
    delivered 76.2% eradication at day 7, 38.1% on day 12 and 23.8% on day 28. That results in successful treatment in 16.74, 8.36 and 5.233 people respectively.


    The Gel
    returned 68.8%, 25% and 18.8% for days 7, 12 and 28. That equates to 15.13, 5.5 and 4.13 people for each stage. While a success percentage of 25% for day 12 implies that 20 people could be in the trial, that can't be the case based on the 7 day percentage of 68.8%. The nearest whole number corresponding to that is 14 people which would be a percentage of exactly 70%, but with 16 people in that part of the study the percentage of 68.8% equates to 11.008 people which rounded to two places is 11 people.


    The vehicle
    claims 27.8% and 12.5%. So if 22 people were treated with the vehicle, then it was successful in 6.11 and 2.75 people respectively.
    It should be noted that these % numbers for day 7 and 28 (27.8 and 12.5%) for the vehicle can't be delivered if the number of people stays the same from the day 7 to day 28. The only way the percentages can be true is if people left the trial, which it appears they did after day 12.

    So in the image below are numbers on the left of screen which match % success rates provided and on the right that show the number of successfully treated people if 22 people finished each treatment course.


    The numbers on the right all result in fractions of people being treated successfully. E.g. 5.5 people or 16.76 people.


    When rounded to 2 decimal places, it looks like 21 people received ointment treatment at days 7, 12 and day 28.
    It appears that 16 people were in the gel trial, at all mentioned points.
    While there were 18 people in the vehicle trial at days 7 and 12, but only 16 at day 28

    It looks like the study utilised less people than stated in the announcement.



    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2877/2877475-0b46623ee5495eeced9cdc5b4c3055b2.jpg



    Rounded to 2 decimal places


    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2877/2877478-9b2cb5bf184f601286cd9f5d9c9eba78.jpg

    Last edited by frisbeehead: 05/02/21
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add BOT (ASX) to my watchlist
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.