As promised earlier today, I said I would expand on the risks. Since the second NOPTA application has arisen, it is a fair question to ask why. The popular theory is that it is an "insurance" or that is is "plan B". These concepts logically assume the first permit application could be "rejected".
BPH's subsidiaries (Advent and Asset) were not compliant with their year 4 and 5 permit conditions (fact). They did not drill or do a 3D seismic scan.
NEATS| Exploration Permit PEP-11 (nopta.gov.au) (work program). According to Kansas and FB they previously shared that NOPTA believes the compliance issue is something that could be the reason why the NOPTA application gets rejected.
50641754 and 50643113Anyone in their right mind knows they cannot extend the permit forever, when will be the final straw?
My confidence in BPH is reduced considering the publishing of the new application on Thursday (04/02/21), which is independent and mutually exclusive from the first application. JustaD is correct when he calls it an "insurance". The only reason this application exists is just in case the first application gets rejected. If Advent were so sure their application would be approved, would they have even considered a second application? Keep in mind... this second application will be assessed fairly and in the same way as the first application.
NEATS | PEP-11 - Suspension and Extension (nopta.gov.au) (second application)
As we discussed today, Keith Pitt has recently admitted the decision is still in the hands of John Barilaro. We know Barilaro gives his decision to NOPTA, NOPTA gives it to Keith, Keith gives his decision to NOPTA, NOPTA tells Breeze, Breeze does the halt (good or bad). I don't see how this circuit will be completed before Friday 12/02/2021.
With all of this bad news, I believe the sophisticated investors that get their shares on Monday may decide to sell, as referenced by many posters, earlier on in the forums, e.g posters discussing potential sophs selling:
50744237506692905071393650734324 User Potgut 10,812 posts: "Monday will be carnage once shares hit A/Cs."
We are once again in a down trend, we are reaching lower lows. I believe Breeze did the right thing by halting the stock during the big red markets, however, the raise before the NOPTA decision is troubling. They could have raised more post NOPTA, so they once again are showing us they are possibly worried about the NOPTA approval.
David Breeze's latest announcement is named "PEP 11 Drilling" this title is very suspicious, why name it that, if the point of the announcement is to re-apply for a permit extension and suspension? A more appropriate name would have been "Second NOPTA application submitted". It looks like a spin of the story.
BUY has fallen by almost 30%, whereas BPH fell by almost 16%. Are the sophs supporting the BPH share price? What will happen once they leave as "Potgut" pointed out?
The second application does not have a "variation" if they don't vary the permit, this means they are still required to do a 3D seismic survey.
The Jason Falinsky motion expires in March, and now Lucy Wicks has shown opposition to PEP-11.
Feedback, comments or contributions are welcome.
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