re: colin powell - next vice president (eom)
The drafting of Edwards will serve as a catalyst to Bush announcicng his own VP running mate. Expect Cheney, therefore, to be replaced by either: 1) Senator John McCain (originally Kerry's #1 choice for VP and a person /voting magnet that Kerry fears even more than Bush himself); or 2) Secretary Colin Powell (almost certainly a coup if this were to occur and which would bring across much of the otherwise Democratic Afro-American /minorities vote and bring together the urban vote).
Edwards can carry parts of the South but he is dislinked in the North.
Kerry is having trouble gaining traction in the heartland (that is in the wheatbelts and prairie country of the mid-west and beyond). This is McCain country, a person who appeals equally in the mid-West as well as in the West and in the North. That's why Kerry pushed so hard to secure the services of McCain.
In selecting MCain as VP, MCain would be virtually assured of getting the 2008 Nomination and, all things being equal, becoming the 44th President.
Conversely, by selecting Powell, Bush would secure inroads into the urban vote (usually dominated by minorities and Hispanics). Bush already resonates with the Hispanic community (primarily due to his days spent back as Governor of Texas), but a Bush-Powell combination would see the centre-left of the political paradigm shift to the centre-right.
Add to this the intrigue of the first Republican-Democratic combination in California (supported by that old stalwart, Teddy Kennedy) and the variations to a theme become even more intriguing.
Also expect Bush, if re-elected, to bring across several Democrats as possible Cabinet members in his next Administration. For example, Wesley Clark as either Secretary of Defence, or Secretary of Homeland Security.
Out of these candidates, I expect Bush to select Powell over McCain and for McCain to then take a cabinet position in the next Administration.
And, before I go, one closing observation - The Vietnam Vets have not even yet begun their disruptive campaign against John Kerry which is expected to co-incide with or proceed shortly following the Democratic Convention.
Kerry may have some populist appeal, but just as Bush has polarised some parts of the community (particularly in the international environment), Kerry has polarised even more of his domestic constituency (especially amongst those serving, or those who have served their country in the past).
