Running discussion on SP, page-39344

@wombat74 posted on the chart thread earlier today:

'AVZ has proven itself at current prices . It's held it's ground well. We have a clear heads up off takes / upgrades etc are around the corner . My question is , what the f@#* are people waiting for ? If you haven't got your fill , then what the hell is stopping you ? The SP is only going one way and that is UP . IMO'

Evening all, I won't make comment on what one should or should not do from here (as always please DYOR). However, I can say that at the current price of 19c, AVZ is trading at a record 87% discount vs Lithium development peers on an EV/tonne Li20 basis. i.e. There has been no change to AVZ's 20th January EV/tonne Li20 valuation at A$112/t, despite the development project peer average rising from A$781/t to A$859/t (as highlighted below - figure produced from hidden metrics for 9 x Lithium developers) over the same period i.e. the last 20 days.

AVZ is therefore trading at a massive A$740/t Li20 discount to its development peers, and an even greater $ & % discount to current SC6 producers like PLS, GXY and so forth. Also worth noting is PLL's A$1.07b Market Cap (A$500m above AVZ's MC) and LAC's M/Cap of ~A$3 Billion - a similar market cap for AVZ is certainly not out of the question IMHO i.e. once the market believes and sees that first Lithium (& resumption of Tin) production at Manono is imminent.


Further notes to the the above table:

AVZ is currently trading at a significant 44% discount to its first pass April 2020 NPV estimate (note: DFS to be updated in Q2 with post wedge assays / improved metrics), and incredibly AVZ is still trading below it's Nov 2017 valuation (refer to the 1st & 3rd AVZ columns above), despite all the signs pointing toward sustained Lithium shortages from EOY 2021 onwards and Lithium Boom 3.0 continuing on for at least the next 5-8 years IMHO.

However, AVZ's SP does look to be readying itself for the next leg up (refer to post 50820296 by @SeeSpotRun for High Tight Flag theory as an example of current TA) with possibly one of the below catalysts to trigger a volume driven break above 23c.

1. Awaiting not one, but up to SEVEN OTs

a) 3 x SC6 OTs - 550,000t - oversubscribed if all signed up. Note: Current planned LCE production capacity 'EXPANDABLE!' and as described in AVZ's latest presentation
b) 3 x PLS OTs - PLS samples sent and currently being evaluated by partners
c) 1 x Tin OT - potential partner in negotiation for a straight OTA of up to 100% of Manono's Stage 1 Tin production

2. Finance update slated for 'early in the New Year' according to NF.
"We're about 80% of the way there" NF mentioned during last week's Benchmark Africa Day presentation.

3. Completion of Wedge drilling (1 hole remaining) and remaining assays "within a month we should have the whole lot wrapped up" according to NF - refer to yesterday's Proactive Investors interview. Last remaining ESIA application, pit optimisation and updated (upgraded) DFS to follow shortly thereafter.

4. SEZ update - government feedback expected in a month or so

5. Study for a 25ktpa Hydroxide plant - "results in the next 2-4 weeks" according to NF. Potential to increase to 100ktpa!! (refer to AVZ's Feb 2021 presentation)

6. Update on any of the following opportunities being investigated

a) improved Tin and Tantalum recovery
b) lower rail rates from railway companies
c) producing sulfuric acid on site
d) alternative methods to treat SC6 for battery products in the future eg. conversion to Lithium Oxide
e) Train two for PLS - adding an additional 20ktpa PLS production capacity (subject to additional finance)

7. The broader investment community and indeed the EV/ESS/Lithium supply chain finally seeing the AVZ / Manono light - a once in a lifetime Lithium opportunity IMO - as so eloquently depicted below (thanks to @DnBall62 on twitter for his efforts in creating the most accurate and up-to-date Lithium hard rock bubble graph currently in existence).



FYI - the above graph was tweeted several times earlier today, targeting OEMs, cathode/battery manufacturers, Lithium analysts and relevant Western world political officials. So let's see if anyone sits up and takes notice (if not take immediate action as I would if I were them). You can lead a horse to water...

And finally, given the pipeline of newsflow expected, some in depth AVZ technical analysis for y'all to consider



Admittedly the above TA concept was recently highlighted [prior] by a so-called 'greatest trader on earth' , so I've extended my creativity with the below equally explosive original (a few relevant up-to-date monthly HA charts to compare).




GLTA, the above is my guide & I fear not the daily noise in between.

All eyes on the prize (developing the world's largest & remarkable quality Hard Rock Lithium resource) as the EV revolution / Lithium Boom 3.0 continues its march towards total disruption (IMO).

Cheers
Elpha