alz > aazpb ?, page-3

I agree with the above.

ALZ is in a strong up trend showing great CG and has liquidity with takeover upside (small probability IMO). Against this is the downside that divi's will get cut if profitability drops which is most likely as rent drops and vacancy rises moving further into a downturn. Property sales strengthen the balance sheet and liquidity but reduce earnings. Interest costs are actually going up as margins being squeezed by bank refi seems to exceed drop in BBSW rates. There is no suggestion that rents are going up anytime soon or that development profits are back on the horizon.

AAZPB has had the majority of it's divi cut already priced in as RBA has slashed cash rates but against that it is illiquid and as sgoni says may get left out in the cold during a TO offer. Still, a TO by Capitaland may increase the chance and bring forward timing of a buy-back because Capitaland's borrowing costs (much larger company with International banking support) are lower than ALZ and thus AAZPB may look too expensive quicker.

Finally the chance of share price pull-back must be higher for ALZ so I maintain a preference for AAZPB (which I hold) over ALZ (which I dont).

goodluck