Agree the simple way to look at value of each of the pillars is to look at peer transactions.
Pillar 1 : FTO = Blockbuster or USD $21B with trial readouts (based on Immunomedics)
Pillar 2 : Breast Cancer = Blockbuster or USD $21B buyout with trial readouts (based on Immunomedics)
Pillar 3 : AML = USD $4.9B based on Forty Seven transaction
Combined a total of USD $47B.
That's indicative value of each pillar individually and combined, although I think even USD $21B each for Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 undervalues these pillars. For Breast Cancer they are chasing a massive segment of the market. About 60% of all Breast Cancers. In the FTO space RACE are planning to use Bisantrene to reduce resistance to PD-1 inhibitors ( for example Keytruda and Opdivo, which have 2026 sales estimates USD $24.9B and USD $11,6B respectively ).
That combined value USD $47B would imply a transaction up to $300 per share ( although I think this is unrealistic ). A more realistic top end is probably about USD $30B ( the current ceiling is USD $21B ).
I would be ecstatic with anything above $50 as it would more fairly value Bisantrene.
During H1 2022 I think they can show:
So if a transaction occurred early 2022, what do I think it would be worth:
- value for Breast Cancer ( first readout should be within a few months of recruitment completing )
- value for AML ( first readout should be within a few months of recruitment completing )
- preclinical data for FTO ( and possibly trials initiating )
That's a total of USD $28.4B. Will they get there? Very hard to know at this point.
- USD $2.5B for Pillar 1 FTO at preclinical stage (arguably higher with IND). That USD $2.5B is based on this post: https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/50911717/single
- USD $21B for Pillar 2 Breast Cancer (based on first readouts)
- USD $4.9B for AML (based on first readouts)
A partnership may be a more realistic path to such a high buyout. We would also need some US investor interest as that will help to prevent Bisantrene and RACE being sold for below what they are worth.
General Comments / Chat, page-1652
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 10,001 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add RAC (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
$1.79 |
Change
0.005(0.28%) |
Mkt cap ! $309.3M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$1.80 | $1.84 | $1.79 | $111.6K | 61.34K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 1100 | $1.79 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$1.81 | 5815 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 1100 | 1.790 |
4 | 21240 | 1.780 |
1 | 1690 | 1.775 |
1 | 11200 | 1.770 |
1 | 2200 | 1.760 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
1.810 | 5815 | 2 |
1.815 | 4294 | 1 |
1.840 | 1000 | 1 |
1.845 | 679 | 1 |
1.855 | 1400 | 1 |
Last trade - 13.22pm 01/10/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
RAC (ASX) Chart |
The Watchlist
LU7
LITHIUM UNIVERSE LIMITED
Alex Hanly, CEO
Alex Hanly
CEO
Previous Video
Next Video
SPONSORED BY The Market Online