9lives,
Something else to consider (that my bear spectacles didn't see until now)...
One of the little tidbits that I picked up (from Mclaren or Gann I think) is that as a bear progresses each retracement is less in percentage terms than the previous before resuming the trend. Until now I had assumed that the retracement marked by the January highs (25%) would not be exceeded but i suspect that the correct application of the principle should also consider which wave of the trend the retracement is compared to.
If the May '08 rally (at 50% retracement) was wave two of a five wave bear and this is now wave four then it seems fair to assume that a 1/3 to 3/8 retracement is possible.
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