Value - what value?, page-98

Hi @LongGrasser0800

I think your numbers look right to me.

This is how I see it

Let's assume GSA revenue = $8.00/GJ
Gas sales spot revenue= $5.00/GJ

COE can supply 68TJ/day of gas

1. Best case, plant fixed = 68TJ of which 54TJ is GSA and 14TJ at spot = $502k per day
2. At full GSA = 54TJ x $8/GJ = $432k
3. Where we are now whist Transition Agreement is in place. We get 90% of GSA = 48.6TJ = $390M
4. Prior to the GSA we are producing about 30TJ at spot = $150M

So we are at 260% relative to where we were for majority of Dec quarter (390/150)

But we are at 80% relative to full run rate if plant hit PC (390/500)

Now earnings wise:

Let's assume GSA margin = $5.00/GJ
Gas spot margin = $2.00/GJ

COE can supply 68TJ/day of gas

1. Best case, plant fixed = 68TJ of which 54TJ is GSA and 14TJ at spot = $298k per day
2. At full GSA = 54TJ x $5/GJ = $270k
3. Where we are now whist Transition Agreement is in place. We get 90% of GSA = 48.6TJ = $243M
4. Prior to the GSA we are producing about 30TJ at spot = $60M

So we are at 400% relative to where we were for majority of Dec quarter (243/60)

But we are at 90% relative to full run rate if plant hit PC (270/298)

Whilst the Transition Agreement is in effect we are not too bad compared to where we should have been